Pangea-Risk

MITIGATE COUNTRY RISK ON A SINGLE PLATFORM

Make informed decisions in emerging and frontier markets with Insight.

Insight is a specialist country risk solution to forecast threats and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Powered by our proprietary forecasting methodology, Insight offers market-tested country risk intelligence and ratings on a customised technology platform.

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Simplified country risk solutions for complex markets.

Independent and objective source of intelligence to withstand major shocks and capitalise on opportunities.

Rigorous qualitative and quantitative forecasting methodology powered by human intelligence, open source intelligence, and proprietary risk analytics.

Commercially relevant, actionable, and forward-looking forecasts with real-time updates to country risk scores.

Monitor

Monitor key country risk indicators to anticipate threats and opportunities.

Measure

Measure and compare country risk scores for 195 countries globally.

Model

Model scenarios to forecast the potential impact of country risk.

Manage

Manage country risk to build resilience and accelerate growth.

Country Outlook

Members can access centralised country risk forecasting for countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Country Outlooks spotlight our qualitative and quantitative country risk assessments, powered by Pangea-Risk's proprietary methodology. Risk peril scores are based on tracking select political, economic, and security indicators. Country Outlooks can be downloaded and incorporated into internal workflow processes, models, and reports.

Insight Briefings

Our members receive frequent and timely analysis briefings on developments in countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The daily briefings offer members a foundation for understanding the trajectory of risks and anticipating future scenarios. Our daily analysis briefings are supplemented by special reports and briefings on the risk landscape, including climate risk and maritime risk.

Risk Ratings

Our proprietary risk scoring methodology for all countries globally allows our members to assess and compare risk peril scores from the past decade. These risk perils represent the macro-political, economic, and security risk landscape for a forecasted one-year outlook. Our risk ratings are reviewed quarterly and updated frequently in real-time to capture developments in the operating environment and to ensure risk scores reflect the current conditions that drive a one-year country risk forecast.

Media Monitor

Our Media Monitor tool is an intelligence feed designed to offer members daily, real-time updates on critical news and risk incidents across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The tool scans reliable local media sources and international news agencies to highlight developments that impact the country risk outlook. Capturing more than 1,000 high priority risk incidents on a monthly basis, the media monitor is enhanced by local human source intelligence, sentiment analysis, and social media monitoring.

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PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2025

Thu, 31 July 2025

In a series of frantic meetings in July spanning from Washington DC to Stockholm in Sweden and Ayrshire in Scotland, the world’s largest trade partners managed to avoid a global trade war. The new normal for United States (US) tariffs on foreign goods starts at 15 percent based on deals with Japan and the European Union. Many emerging markets that have not concluded a deal before the 1 August deadline could face tariffs of up to 50 percent. Foreign companies have so far been absorbing the cost of trade with the US, but many firms have now begun raising prices on their US-bound goods. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the impact of US tariffs on emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. We also unlock a briefing on the resurgence of Red Sea shipping risks with further consequences for global trade and supply chains. And from August, Pangea-Risk expands country risk forecasting to Southeast Asia and China, extending our coverage to a total of 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East!

YEMEN: HOUTHIS RE-ENGAGE IN MARITIME ATTACKS AS RIVALS FRAGMENT AND EXTERNAL PRESSURE STALLS

Tue, 15 July 2025

The Houthis have resumed missile strikes on Israeli-linked maritime assets after a temporary halt, exploiting ambiguity within their ceasefire framework with the US. Concurrently, the Houthis have deepened logistical cooperation with Al Shabaab, leveraging Somali-controlled coastal corridors to circumvent interdiction efforts and expand drone capabilities. Domestically, the suspension of US air operations has facilitated Houthi consolidation in northern Yemen, enabled reconstruction of logistical hubs, while exposing structural dysfunction within the anti-Houthi bloc.

SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP’S TARIFF DEADLINE LOOMS: WHAT STAKEHOLDERS IN EMERGING MARKETS NEED TO KNOW

Tue, 08 July 2025

As the newly announced 1 August deadline for Trump’s reciprocal tariff regime approaches, uncertainty looms for global trade. While some major economies have secured partial deals, many emerging markets face escalating tariffs with little recourse. This special report examines the ripple effects across supply chains, strategic sectors, and commodity diplomacy. From shifting trade alliances to critical minerals as bargaining tools, this special report explores how governments and businesses must recalibrate strategies to navigate a fragmented, transactional, and increasingly volatile trade environment.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2025

Thu, 26 June 2025

In June, our team criss-crossed conferences and summits in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East to participate in discussions on trade, investment, and security policy. Apart from the regional impact of the escalating war between Israel and Iran, a recurring theme in such talks has been the long-standing concern over the cost of capital for African financial institutions. In the context of annual meetings of some of Africa’s largest financial institutions in June, a recent credit rating downgrade of one of these organisations, as well as multiple controversial sovereign downgrades in Africa earlier this year, have reignited an important debate in which we at Pangea-Risk are actively participating. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on African debt restructurings and credit rating mechanisms that earlier this month already featured prominently in international media. Separately, and ahead of our wider Asian country risk coverage expansion, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the economic and security outlook of the world’s most populated nation, India.

SPECIAL REPORT: CREDIT RATING AND RESTRUCTURING DISPUTES EXPOSE MISALIGNMENT ON AFRICA DEBT RISKS

Thu, 12 June 2025

The recent credit rating downgrade of Afreximbank, a key Africa-based financial institution, has reignited concerns over elevated borrowing costs on the continent. The downgrade comes against the backdrop of a dispute among international creditors over the inclusion of loans from African multilateral institutions in sovereign restructurings. Renegotiating the terms of these debt instruments could further exacerbate existing perceptions of elevated risk in Africa, driving up sovereign borrowing costs and curtailing access to capital for development projects and trade finance, particularly during times of global economic shocks. In this context, Africa is seeking to launch its own credit ratings agency later in 2025.

INDIA: STRONG GROWTH MASKS INDUSTRIAL WEAKNESSES AND GEOPOLITICAL COMMERCIAL RISKS

Wed, 11 June 2025

India’s strong first-quarter growth masks underlying vulnerabilities, including declining foreign investment and industrial weaknesses. Geopolitical rivalries, particularly involving China and Pakistan, are compounding these challenges, disrupting trade, exposing critical supply chain risks, and complicating airspace access. These frictions also intersect with India’s expanding aviation sector, where rapid growth ambitions are threatened by regulatory gaps and infrastructure shortfalls. Meanwhile, the revocation of Çelebi’s security clearance underscores the growing exposure of foreign firms to political and reputational risks in India’s increasingly nationalist policy environment, where geopolitical alignments may shape some commercial decisions.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2025

Thu, 29 May 2025

The US president’s three-state visit to the Gulf in May was underpinned by shifting geopolitical alliances, American protectionism, and incentivisation of foreign investment into the world’s largest economy by cash-flush Gulf monarchies. The resultant flurry of announcements on deals in the energy, aviation & military, and artificial intelligence sectors were intertwined by intensifying global competition for critical minerals. In particular, the US is leveraging the Gulf’s capital and strategic position to secure access to unexplored minerals across frontier and emerging markets in the Global South. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the mining country of Zambia, where American, Chinese, European, and Emirati stakeholders are tussling over access to some of the world’s most important reserves of such minerals considered critical to their respective economies. Separately, we offer a look into our analysis on May’s three-day conflict in South Asia and the impact on Pakistan’s economy and fiscal outlook.

ZAMBIA: COPPER OUTPUT SURGE BOOSTS GROWTH OUTLOOK AMID LINGERING DEBT CONSTRAINTS

Wed, 14 May 2025

Zambia has recorded a sharp increase in copper output in early 2025, signalling renewed momentum in the mining sector and providing a foundation for an optimistic economic outlook. Foreign investors' interest in the country’s mining sector continues to support Zambia’s economic trajectory. However, the prolonged debt restructuring process continues to strain fiscal space, while the government’s constitutional reform agenda is heightening political competition ahead of the 2026 elections.

PAKISTAN: CROSS-BORDER ESCALATION WITH INDIA TRIGGERS ECONOMIC FALLOUT DESPITE IMF LIFELINE

Tue, 13 May 2025

India’s cross-border strikes in early May triggered the most intense India-Pakistan clashes in decades, halted by a US-brokered ceasefire on 10 May. The escalation rattled investor confidence and disrupted key sectors in Pakistan, including aviation, trade, and financial services, while raising concerns about exacerbating macroeconomic vulnerabilities. One day before the ceasefire, the International Monetary Fund approved USD 2.5 billion in funding to support Pakistan’s fragile recovery. Although the package offers temporary relief, persistent geopolitical frictions, domestic insecurity, and economic fragility continue to weigh on the country’s outlook.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - APRIL 2025

Wed, 30 April 2025

For a third consecutive year, our team collaborated with investment manager Acre Impact Capital to jointly publish a white paper on African sovereign debt themes and to push back against prevalent negativity surrounding the continent’s sovereigns. This year, our white paper was given extra relevance by the US government’s temporary decision to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on many of its trade partners in the Global South, while maintaining new baseline levies on trade with most African countries. Our white paper has undoubtedly helped to shine some clarity on a confusing and disruptive month for global trade. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock the white paper on the impact of political change on Africa’s credit outlook. We also offer all readers an opportunity to watch the recording of a gripping webinar hosted by the paper’s authors. Meanwhile, our Insight Members can take another look at the three special reports we published on the impact of the US tariffs on trade with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

LIBYA: ENERGY INVESTMENT BECOMES A LEVER OF FOREIGN-BACKED POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION

Thu, 17 April 2025

The United States’ military and diplomatic engagement with the Libyan National Army (LNA) reflects a recalibrated strategy to counter Russia’s entrenched presence but is reinforcing fragmented authority, marginalising the Government of National Unity, and entrenching dual security structures. The energy sector, while presenting investment potential through new public tenders, remains divided, with the eastern oil zones effectively controlled by the LNA and leveraged for strategic partnerships with Russia and China. Libya’s fiscal model remains exposed to global oil price volatility, with minimal non-oil revenue, opaque spending, and a widening deficit that threatens macroeconomic stability.

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL CHANGE ON AFRICA’S CREDIT OUTLOOK IN 2025

Tue, 08 April 2025

The Impact of Political Change on Africa’s Credit Outlook in 2025 examines the critical intersections between political shifts and credit risk across the continent. As Africa navigates the outcomes of key elections in 2024 and 2025 as well as geopolitical realignments off the back of President Donald Trump’s re-election, some caution over Africa’s credit outlook and ability to service debt is well placed. That said, African borrowers are showing signs of resilience that could bode well for mitigating these risks.

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