Pangea-Risk

MITIGATE COUNTRY RISK ON A SINGLE PLATFORM

Make informed decisions in emerging and frontier markets with Insight.

Insight is a specialist country risk solution to forecast threats and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Powered by our proprietary forecasting methodology, Insight offers market-tested country risk intelligence and ratings on a customised technology platform.

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Simplified country risk solutions for complex markets.

Independent and objective source of intelligence to withstand major shocks and capitalise on opportunities.

Rigorous qualitative and quantitative forecasting methodology powered by human intelligence, open source intelligence, and proprietary risk analytics.

Commercially relevant, actionable, and forward-looking forecasts with real-time updates to country risk scores.

Monitor

Monitor key country risk indicators to anticipate threats and opportunities.

Measure

Measure and compare country risk scores for 195 countries globally.

Model

Model scenarios to forecast the potential impact of country risk.

Manage

Manage country risk to build resilience and accelerate growth.

Country Outlook

Members can access centralised country risk forecasting for countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Country Outlooks spotlight our qualitative and quantitative country risk assessments, powered by Pangea-Risk's proprietary methodology. Risk peril scores are based on tracking select political, economic, and security indicators. Country Outlooks can be downloaded and incorporated into internal workflow processes, models, and reports.

Insight Briefings

Our members receive frequent and timely analysis briefings on developments in countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The daily briefings offer members a foundation for understanding the trajectory of risks and anticipating future scenarios. Our daily analysis briefings are supplemented by special reports and briefings on the risk landscape, including climate risk and maritime risk.

Risk Ratings

Our proprietary risk scoring methodology for all countries globally allows our members to assess and compare risk peril scores from the past decade. These risk perils represent the macro-political, economic, and security risk landscape for a forecasted one-year outlook. Our risk ratings are reviewed quarterly and updated frequently in real-time to capture developments in the operating environment and to ensure risk scores reflect the current conditions that drive a one-year country risk forecast.

Media Monitor

Our Media Monitor tool is an intelligence feed designed to offer members daily, real-time updates on critical news and risk incidents across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The tool scans reliable local media sources and international news agencies to highlight developments that impact the country risk outlook. Capturing more than 1,000 high priority risk incidents on a monthly basis, the media monitor is enhanced by local human source intelligence, sentiment analysis, and social media monitoring.

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PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2025

Thu, 29 May 2025

The US president’s three-state visit to the Gulf in May was underpinned by shifting geopolitical alliances, American protectionism, and incentivisation of foreign investment into the world’s largest economy by cash-flush Gulf monarchies. The resultant flurry of announcements on deals in the energy, aviation & military, and artificial intelligence sectors were intertwined by intensifying global competition for critical minerals. In particular, the US is leveraging the Gulf’s capital and strategic position to secure access to unexplored minerals across frontier and emerging markets in the Global South. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the mining country of Zambia, where American, Chinese, European, and Emirati stakeholders are tussling over access to some of the world’s most important reserves of such minerals considered critical to their respective economies. Separately, we offer a look into our analysis on May’s three-day conflict in South Asia and the impact on Pakistan’s economy and fiscal outlook.

ZAMBIA: COPPER OUTPUT SURGE BOOSTS GROWTH OUTLOOK AMID LINGERING DEBT CONSTRAINTS

Wed, 14 May 2025

Zambia has recorded a sharp increase in copper output in early 2025, signalling renewed momentum in the mining sector and providing a foundation for an optimistic economic outlook. Foreign investors' interest in the country’s mining sector continues to support Zambia’s economic trajectory. However, the prolonged debt restructuring process continues to strain fiscal space, while the government’s constitutional reform agenda is heightening political competition ahead of the 2026 elections.

PAKISTAN: CROSS-BORDER ESCALATION WITH INDIA TRIGGERS ECONOMIC FALLOUT DESPITE IMF LIFELINE

Tue, 13 May 2025

India’s cross-border strikes in early May triggered the most intense India-Pakistan clashes in decades, halted by a US-brokered ceasefire on 10 May. The escalation rattled investor confidence and disrupted key sectors in Pakistan, including aviation, trade, and financial services, while raising concerns about exacerbating macroeconomic vulnerabilities. One day before the ceasefire, the International Monetary Fund approved USD 2.5 billion in funding to support Pakistan’s fragile recovery. Although the package offers temporary relief, persistent geopolitical frictions, domestic insecurity, and economic fragility continue to weigh on the country’s outlook.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - APRIL 2025

Wed, 30 April 2025

For a third consecutive year, our team collaborated with investment manager Acre Impact Capital to jointly publish a white paper on African sovereign debt themes and to push back against prevalent negativity surrounding the continent’s sovereigns. This year, our white paper was given extra relevance by the US government’s temporary decision to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on many of its trade partners in the Global South, while maintaining new baseline levies on trade with most African countries. Our white paper has undoubtedly helped to shine some clarity on a confusing and disruptive month for global trade. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock the white paper on the impact of political change on Africa’s credit outlook. We also offer all readers an opportunity to watch the recording of a gripping webinar hosted by the paper’s authors. Meanwhile, our Insight Members can take another look at the three special reports we published on the impact of the US tariffs on trade with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

LIBYA: ENERGY INVESTMENT BECOMES A LEVER OF FOREIGN-BACKED POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION

Thu, 17 April 2025

The United States’ military and diplomatic engagement with the Libyan National Army (LNA) reflects a recalibrated strategy to counter Russia’s entrenched presence but is reinforcing fragmented authority, marginalising the Government of National Unity, and entrenching dual security structures. The energy sector, while presenting investment potential through new public tenders, remains divided, with the eastern oil zones effectively controlled by the LNA and leveraged for strategic partnerships with Russia and China. Libya’s fiscal model remains exposed to global oil price volatility, with minimal non-oil revenue, opaque spending, and a widening deficit that threatens macroeconomic stability.

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL CHANGE ON AFRICA’S CREDIT OUTLOOK IN 2025

Tue, 08 April 2025

The Impact of Political Change on Africa’s Credit Outlook in 2025 examines the critical intersections between political shifts and credit risk across the continent. As Africa navigates the outcomes of key elections in 2024 and 2025 as well as geopolitical realignments off the back of President Donald Trump’s re-election, some caution over Africa’s credit outlook and ability to service debt is well placed. That said, African borrowers are showing signs of resilience that could bode well for mitigating these risks.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MARCH 2025

Thu, 27 March 2025

In his first two months in office, US President Donald Trump has uprooted some of the world’s most established alliances, entrenched trade policies, and essential foreign aid flows, in a shock to the rules-based global consensus that America has led for almost 80 years. Trump’s policies have had an immeasurable impact on frontier and emerging markets across the world. As a result, international financial flows are noticeably shifting away from renewables towards hydrocarbons, critical minerals, and military & defence sectors. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Advisory report on the implications of US tariffs and trade policies on emerging markets and we showcase analysis on the impact of western foreign aid withdrawals. We also highlight the remarkable expansion of African infrastructure and associated opportunities for trade and logistics.

SPECIAL REPORT: THE IMPLICATIONS OF US PROTECTIONIST TRADE POLICIES FOR EMERGING MARKETS

Wed, 12 March 2025

President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies have upended global commerce, shifting US policy from multilateral cooperation to protectionist tariffs and politically motivated trade measures. While the US seeks to rebalance trade deficits, so too is the Trump administration seeking to extract non-trade concessions from its partners. Africa’s regional integration efforts through AfCFTA and Gulf investment in alternative markets point to renewed adaptation among emerging markets. With shifting alliances, potential debt pressures, and evolving trade norms, businesses and policymakers must rethink traditional models to stay competitive.

SPECIAL REPORT: INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS BOOST AFRICAN TRADE AND DRIVE REGIONAL INTEGRATION

Tue, 11 March 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a transformational shift in infrastructure investment, enhancing transport, energy, and logistics networks to unlock trade potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). As China scales back large-scale lending, blended finance, public-private partnerships, and Gulf investments are driving emerging infrastructure funding models. Strategic infrastructure projects that stretch beyond borders are reducing trade barriers, boosting regional supply chains, and positioning Sub-Saharan Africa as a competitive player in global markets.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - FEBRUARY 2025

Thu, 27 February 2025

Not only is the Gulf region by now the largest source of foreign direct investment into Africa… It is also a growing trade partner, outstripping the US and India, and rivalling China and Western Europe in terms of two-way trade flows between the Gulf region and the African continent. Emirati logistics companies are stepping up investments in seaports and land-based trade corridors to facilitate the shipment of goods, even while the West withdraws. Meanwhile, the value and type of goods are evolving into more diverse and beneficiated imports and exports. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock our latest Africa-Gulf Trade Report to highlight the remarkable shift in intra-regional flows of commodities and other goods. We also showcase our latest advisory briefing on how African mining companies can mitigate country risks.

SPECIAL REPORT: AFRICAN COMMODITIES TRADE BOOSTED BY GULF INVESTMENT IN SUPPLY CHAIN AND LOGISTICS

Thu, 06 February 2025

GCC-Africa trade is deepening as Gulf states expand market access and secure strategic commodities, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia leading efforts to strengthen commercial ties. Gulf-backed ports and logistics hubs are strengthening trade corridors, facilitating faster shipments, and reinforcing the UAE’s role as a re-export hub. However, Africa’s processing industries remain underdeveloped, with much of the value addition still concentrated in the Gulf. Local currency trade faces slow implementation and regulatory barriers, keeping dollar transactions dominant despite emerging hybrid payment models.

SPECIAL REPORT: RISK VERSUS REWARD - EVALUATING THE ATTRACTIVENESS OF AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR

Tue, 04 February 2025

Africa’s mining sector holds immense potential, with critical minerals vital to global technology needs and the green energy transition. However, the region’s political, insecurity, and regulatory risks present growing challenges. High-profile cases, such as technology company Apple’s alleged use of conflict minerals illicitly mined in central Africa or the fall-out over mining firm Barrick Gold’s tax dispute in Mali, underscore the complexity of operating on the continent. As governments impose stricter contract terms, and investors face heightened consumer scrutiny and security threats, proactive risk management is essential. Pangea-Risk Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid examines these dynamics and outlines strategies that can help companies unlock Africa’s mineral potential.

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