Pangea-Risk Insight is a specialist intelligence membership platform that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts and analysis on political, security, and economic risk in Africa and the Middle East to a wide-ranging spread of client sectors.
All country risk analysis is supported by local source intelligence and driven by proprietary risk methodology presented on a cost-effective, centralised, and user-friendly platform.
Pangea-Risk Insight is an industry leading online membership platform that provides analysis and forecasts on political, security, and economic risk in 68 countries in Africa and the Middle East. Our proprietary forecasting methodology is driven by local source intelligence, quantitative risk ratings, and artificial intelligence and data dissemination. On the platform, our members can consult frequently updated country risk briefings that are forward-looking, intelligence-driven, and commercially relevant.
Our members receive a daily selection of commercially relevant news from Africa and the Middle East. Our intelligence centre captures more than 1,000 risk incidents every month from a variety of international and local sources. This intelligence stream forms the basis of our analysis and forecasting methodology, alongside local human source intelligence, sentiment analysis, social media monitoring, and macro trend evaluation.
Our members receive daily analysis briefings and special reports, as well as weekly summary, monthly editorial, and quarterly risk rating newsletters. Our team of experienced country risk analysts, researchers, and thematic experts publishes daily analysis on key developments in Africa and the Middle East, delivering actionable and commercially relevant risk forecasts. All analysis briefings are printable and fully downloadable into PDF.
Our members have access to a unique risk scoring system based on internationally recognised industry standards for 68 African and Middle East countries. The quarterly updated scores compare individual risk perils for each country representing the political, economic, and security environment over a forecasted one-year outlook. These individual scores form the basis of the overall country risk ratings, which are fully downloadable and can be customised based on members’ needs. Our financial services clients across the world use Pangea-Risk's quantitative data to feed into their business decision processes.
PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS
(Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks)
MONTHLY INSIGHT - JANUARY 2024
Wed, 31 January 2024
In 2024, Africa’s debt problem may finally be resolved… That will be the ambitious aspiration of many countries that are embracing fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improved governance. Loan markets seem to partially agree with this hypothesis. Just a few weeks after Ethiopia chose to default on a Eurobond coupon payment, Côte d'Ivoire successfully raised USD 2.6 billion in a record-breaking international bonds issuance that drew interest from more than 400 investors. A few other sovereigns are expected to follow suit in coming months, but some debt distressed states will continue to pose severe risk of non-payment through 2024.
ANIMATED REPORT: AFRICA IN 2024 - IDENTIFYING MAJOR COUNTRY RISK TRENDS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND HOTSPOTS
Tue, 16 January 2024
Africa will again drive global economic growth in 2024, while boasting many exciting developments for trade and investment. But the continent also remains exceptionally vulnerable to global challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, forex shortages, and debt unaffordability, as well as conflict and political instability. Pangea-Risk publishes this animated special report, including infographics and bespoke videos, to showcase some of our key forecasts for the African continent in the year ahead.
MARITIME INSIGHT: US-LED AIRSTRIKES WILL NOT CURB HOUTHI THREAT IN RED SEA
Mon, 15 January 2024
The United States and its allies have executed airstrikes in Yemen on over 60 targets across 16 locations, encompassing weapons depots, air-surveillance facilities, and coastal radar systems. This operation signifies a notable tactical shift in the Red Sea region. Despite these measures, the impact of the US-led naval coalition, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, in effectively deterring Houthi aggressions is expected to be limited. In the forthcoming two to three weeks, it is anticipated that Houthi attacks on vessels will persist, albeit potentially at a reduced rate and intensity, as the group reorganises and formulates its forthcoming strategies.
MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2023
Thu, 28 December 2023
In response to requests from some of our – very engaged – clients, we have added a new Maritime Insight feature to our country risk intelligence platform, covering security risks in the strategic waterways of Africa and the Middle East through which some 80 percent of the world’s seaborne cargo passes. The timing is critical as international warships deploy to the southern Red Sea to curb aerial attacks derived from Yemen and Iran, even while opportunistic Somali pirates re-emerge in the Gulf of Aden. If you are interested in supply chain, commodity trade, export finance, or risk insurance and corporate security, take a look at the below free-to-read Maritime Insight reports or watch the animated infographic.
MARITIME INSIGHT: RE-EMERGENCE OF SOMALI PIRACY DEEPENS MARITIME SECURITY WOES
Wed, 20 December 2023
The resurgence of Somali piracy amid ongoing attacks from Yemen, and subsequent rerouting of major shipping lines around Africa underscores a significant escalation in maritime security risks. The heightened threat, potentially linked to broader geopolitical tensions and exploitation of security vacuums, has major economic implications, seen in increased shipping costs and disrupted global supply chains. The international response, led by the US’s "Operation Prosperity Guardian," aims to counter these growing threats, with its effectiveness yet to be fully realised amidst concerns of potential escalation and the creation of new security gaps in critical maritime regions.
SPECIAL REPORT: GROWING SECURITY RISKS TO COMMERCIAL SHIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN RED SEA
Wed, 06 December 2023
The recent escalation of Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea, particularly targeting Israeli-linked vessels, marks a notable shift amid the ongoing war in Gaza. This change, evidenced by the use of advanced tactics like helicopter-borne attacks, indicates an evolution in Houthi capabilities and a potential shift away from traditional Iranian proxy strategies. As Houthi rebels continue to conduct attacks against Israeli-linked ships, the likelihood of retaliatory strikes by the United States and/or Israel is growing. Furthermore, these developments have led to increased maritime risks, resulting in heightened security measures and rising insurance costs, which are impacting commercial shipping operations.
MONTHLY INSIGHT - NOVEMBER 2023
Wed, 29 November 2023
Chinese official loans to Africa are at a 20-year low, as China steadily reduces engagement on the continent. The upcoming China Africa FOCAC summit in 2024 in Beijing will again confirm a downward trend in development funding and infrastructure lending to Africa by its biggest creditor. As China’s hegemony in Africa recedes, it creates opportunities for other global powers, such as the United States and Europe, as well as so-called “middle powers” from the Gulf region to increase their footprint in Africa. Several recent and upcoming international summits underline this shifting trend.
IRAQ: GAZA WAR TESTS POLITICAL STABILITY GAINS AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPEAL
Wed, 22 November 2023
The Israel-Hamas conflict's escalation is increasingly impacting Iraq's political and security landscape. Iran-backed militias are targeting United States (US) forces, leveraging the conflict to advance their strategic goals in Iraq, while the US responds with airstrikes and heightened defence measures. This is happening during a period when Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani's administration has been focusing on political stabilisation and infrastructural development amidst legislative hurdles and intricate regional diplomacy. In the energy sector, Iraq is shifting to diversify its gas sources, particularly through a significant agreement with Turkmenistan, aiming to lessen dependency on Iranian gas. Economically, Iraq is confronting a forecasted GDP contraction driven by declining oil prices and currency devaluation, with substantial budget allocations directed towards stimulating non-oil GDP growth and bolstering infrastructure development.
SPECIAL REPORT: WHERE NEXT FOR ISLAMIST MILITANTS IN THE SAHEL?
Wed, 08 November 2023
The central Sahel region is grappling with a severe deterioration of insecurity, primarily driven by the expansion of Islamist militant groups. Resultant political upheaval, characterised by multiple coups, has led to a significant reduction in international military support, notably from French and United Nations peacekeeping forces. Their withdrawal has not only emboldened militants, but also left the Sahelian security forces without crucial intelligence and military support, potentially allowing militants to extend their reach towards the Gulf of Guinea. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, a regional defence pact, may offer some coordination in counter-terrorism efforts but does not fully mitigate risks derived from intensifying insurgency. The militants' territorial gains and the resurgence of the Tuareg insurgency in Mali threaten the stability of the region and have led to a spike in violence, with commercial operations, especially in the mining sector, facing heightened risks.
MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2023
Tue, 31 October 2023
In October, our attention shifted to the Middle East following the attack on Israel by militant group Hamas and the subsequent Israeli counteroffensive on Gaza and its border regions with Lebanon and Syria. In coming weeks, we will be closely monitoring indications of conflict contagion to strategic countries lining the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as far as Eritrea. But our focus on the Middle East has been more diverse and strategic, so we have published extensively on ambitious economic diversification initiatives and proposed expansion of regional trade corridors.
ANGOLA: IMPEACHMENT BID FAILS AGAINST BACKDROP OF GROWING POLITICAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GRIEVANCES
Fri, 27 October 2023
A failed opposition-led impeachment motion against Angola’s President, João Lourenço, is indicative of growing public grievances against the MPLA government, which the opposition UNITA party has sought to capitalise on. While the government faces mounting fiscal challenges due to falling oil revenues, currency depreciation, and rising debt, the rise in public discontent has limited its ability to implement a reform agenda. Nonetheless, the medium-term economic outlook has improved amid a surge in new investments, including into oil and gas exploration and major cross-border transport infrastructure projects.
SAUDI ARABIA: NON-OIL GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION EFFORTS ARE ADVANCING RAPIDLY
Wed, 04 October 2023
Saudi Arabia's economic diversification efforts under the Vision 2030 initiative are showing promising signs. While Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth has slowed in 2023 as oil production has been cut, its private non-oil economy continues to grow robustly. This growth is driven by robust domestic consumption, non-oil private investment, and the growing investments in “giga-projects”. The kingdom has also initiated new Special Economic Zones (SEZs), attracting USD 12.6 billion in investments, with an additional USD 31 billion underway. These SEZs, designed to support the non-oil sector, offer attractive incentives and a conducive environment for sustainable business growth, thereby presenting enormous opportunities for investors.
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