Pangea-Risk

MITIGATE COUNTRY RISK ON A SINGLE PLATFORM

Make informed decisions in emerging and frontier markets with Insight.

Insight is a specialist country risk solution to forecast threats and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Powered by our proprietary forecasting methodology, Insight offers market-tested country risk intelligence and ratings on a customised technology platform.

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Simplified country risk solutions for complex markets.

Independent and objective source of intelligence to withstand major shocks and capitalise on opportunities.

Rigorous qualitative and quantitative forecasting methodology powered by human intelligence, open source intelligence, and proprietary risk analytics.

Commercially relevant, actionable, and forward-looking forecasts with real-time updates to country risk scores.

Monitor

Monitor key country risk indicators to anticipate threats and opportunities.

Measure

Measure and compare country risk scores for 195 countries globally.

Model

Model scenarios to forecast the potential impact of country risk.

Manage

Manage country risk to build resilience and accelerate growth.

Country Outlook

Members can access centralised country risk forecasting for countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Country Outlooks spotlight our qualitative and quantitative country risk assessments, powered by Pangea-Risk's proprietary methodology. Risk peril scores are based on tracking select political, economic, and security indicators. Country Outlooks can be downloaded and incorporated into internal workflow processes, models, and reports.

Insight Briefings

Our members receive frequent and timely analysis briefings on developments in countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The daily briefings offer members a foundation for understanding the trajectory of risks and anticipating future scenarios. Our daily analysis briefings are supplemented by special reports and briefings on the risk landscape, including climate risk and maritime risk.

Risk Ratings

Our proprietary risk scoring methodology for all countries globally allows our members to assess and compare risk peril scores from the past decade. These risk perils represent the macro-political, economic, and security risk landscape for a forecasted one-year outlook. Our risk ratings are reviewed quarterly and updated frequently in real-time to capture developments in the operating environment and to ensure risk scores reflect the current conditions that drive a one-year country risk forecast.

Media Monitor

Our Media Monitor tool is an intelligence feed designed to offer members daily, real-time updates on critical news and risk incidents across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The tool scans reliable local media sources and international news agencies to highlight developments that impact the country risk outlook. Capturing more than 1,000 high priority risk incidents on a monthly basis, the media monitor is enhanced by local human source intelligence, sentiment analysis, and social media monitoring.

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PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2024

Wed, 30 October 2024

Kazan 2024 was no Bretton Woods 1944… A lack of consensus among BRICS members thwarted ambitions to rival the dominance of the US dollar in global trade transactions. Despite new local currency initiatives, the BRICS New Development Bank still trails the World Bank and IMF. Yet, the launch of local currency payments and clearance systems should enhance trade and investment flows among emerging and frontier markets, while stabilising their forex positions. No wonder that dozens of Global South states are queuing to join the bloc. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a popular feature on the looming African domestic debt crisis, and we assess the outlook of two new BRICS partner countries – Uzbekistan and Uganda. We also explain why oil giant Saudi Arabia has not joined the club yet…

SPECIAL REPORT: AFRICAN DOMESTIC BORROWING SURGES AMID GLOBAL MARKET CONSTRAINTS

Thu, 17 October 2024

The upcoming IMF and World Bank annual meetings should focus on Africa's deepening debt challenges, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable fiscal solutions. African governments have increasingly relied on domestic debt amid constrained access to international capital markets, driven by low credit ratings and rising debt sustainability risks. Governments are turning to trade finance solutions and concessional loans to bridge budget gaps and finance infrastructure. Despite some innovative strategies like climate bonds and bilateral trade agreements, debt servicing remains a notable strain, forcing countries to cut spending on essential services and infrastructure.

UZBEKISTAN: PRIVATISATION DELAYS AND MANAGED ELECTIONS UNDERMINE REFORM PERCEPTIONS

Tue, 15 October 2024

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s vision of a ‘New Uzbekistan,’ focused on political and economic reforms, continues to attract investor interest. However, his efforts to position himself as a reformer have not substantially altered the country's centralised control of political and economic power. The government’s push for privatisation of state-owned enterprises has yielded mixed results, with investors questioning the authorities’ true intent. While some political reforms have been introduced under Mirziyoyev, they have been largely procedural, and the upcoming legislative election will remain tightly controlled. Despite these dynamics, several international financial organisations have recently praised Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic health.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2024

Mon, 30 September 2024

How do we mitigate conflict in a world with deep ideological divisions, shrinking resources, and disrupted supply chains, exacerbated by climate change…? This question was the recurring theme at the United Nations General Assembly that knotted together myriad attendee discussions in late September. The impact of conflict on country risk in Frontier and Emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East is also a primary focus of our analysis published on the newly expanded Insight country risk solutions platform that we relaunched this month. Popular features among our Insight members that are free to read in this Monthly Insight include an assessment of geopolitical rivalries to access critical minerals, the impact of climate change on country risk in the Sahel, and the regional effect of the escalating war in Lebanon.

CLIMATE INSIGHT: RESOURCE SHORTAGES IN THE SAHEL DRIVE EXPANSION OF INSURGENTS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Wed, 25 September 2024

Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and desertification in the Sahel are intensifying food insecurity and displacing millions, with shrinking water supplies and arable land putting immense pressure on livelihoods. Resource scarcity is fuelling conflicts over land and water, particularly between farming and herding communities, with Lake Chad’s shrinkage amplifying communal violence. Islamist militant groups are exploiting these environmental vulnerabilities, controlling water sources and recruiting from marginalised communities, further destabilising the region and undermining government authority. The expulsion of Western forces has weakened international support, reducing critical funding for climate-related projects.

LEBANON: HEZBOLLAH SUFFERS A MAJOR OPERATIONAL BLOW WHILE STRAINING TO PREVENT A BROADER WAR WITH ISRAEL

Mon, 23 September 2024

Israeli intelligence exploited Hezbollah’s supply chain vulnerabilities by targeting pagers used by its members, exposing the group’s operational weaknesses. The attack deepened Hezbollah’s internal challenges, already strained by recent Israeli strikes on its leadership, as the group struggles to respond without provoking a broader conflict. Politically, Hezbollah faces constraints within Lebanon, where opposition to a full-scale war is growing, and its actions remain tied to Iran’s strategic decisions. Meanwhile, Israel has shifted its military focus northward, preparing for potential escalation, with Israeli leadership indicating a readiness to extend its operations from Gaza to Lebanon.

SPECIAL REPORT: BUOYANT INTEREST IN AFRICAN CRITICAL MINERALS SPURS INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE AND LOGISTICS

Thu, 05 September 2024

Africa’s critical minerals sector is experiencing a strategic shift in global investments, with the United States and Europe promoting projects like the Lobito Corridor to challenge China's dominance and diversify partnerships. Countries across the continent are implementing regulatory reforms to attract global stakeholders and enhance value chains by boosting local processing and production capabilities. Infrastructure deficits, particularly in transport and energy, are driving governments to engage in public-private partnerships and invest heavily in rail and logistics networks to facilitate mineral exports and support economic transformation.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2024

Thu, 29 August 2024

In August, we mark the ninth anniversary of Pangea-Risk. As we enter a tenth operational year, we are extending coverage of our flagship country risk solution, Insight, to new markets in Central Asia, South Asia, and the Caucasus region. This latest expansion builds on our already established focus on Africa and the Middle East. We mark our anniversary by expanding coverage of the Insight platform to new emerging and frontier markets and applying our market-tested and indicator-driven quantitative risk ratings to all countries around the world.

MARITIME INSIGHT: STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND HORN OF AFRICA EXPOSED TO REGIONAL CONFLICT RISKS

Thu, 15 August 2024

The recent spate of attacks is part of an escalating tit-for-tat cycle of violence between Israel, the US, Iran and regional militant movements. Hostilities have risen sharply after the Israeli military killed senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran just hours after killing a senior Hezbollah official in Beirut in late July. Iran is expected to calibrate its retaliation carefully to avoid full-scale war, but any miscalculation could still escalate into a broader conflict. This would inevitably spill over into other parts of the region, including compounding maritime insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, instability has contributed to a resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa, particularly as groups like the Houthis and Al Shabaab allegedly explore deeper cooperation.

SUDAN: PARAMILITARY RIVALS ADVANCE AMID FAILED PEACE EFFORTS AND RUSSIAN REALIGNMENT

Wed, 14 August 2024

Various mediation efforts proliferate as competing interests among peace brokers undermine a unified approach. Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its support from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), aligning with Iran as the conflict escalates. This strategic pivot occurs alongside the RSF's capture of key territories in Sennar and Darfur, adding complexity to the already stalled peace process. Sudan’s economy is projected to contract further in 2024, with any chance of recovery dependent on the uncertain prospects for peace amid ongoing instability and weak institutional capacities.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2024

Wed, 31 July 2024

In July, a fifth African country returned to the Eurobond market for the first time in two years. The latest round of bond bingeing may stop there, at least for now, for two reasons. Firstly, uncertainty over the outcome of the US elections is making African treasuries anxious, driving many sovereigns to stock up on gold reserves. Secondly, mounting domestic resistance to strict fiscal conditionalities imposed by the IMF under programmes that have been key to the Eurobonds’ success will make Africa’s policymakers more cautious in adopting austerity to pay back their debt.

IRAN: MODERATE PRESIDENT TO BE CONSTRAINED BY PARLIAMENT AND SUPREME LEADER'S CONTROL

Wed, 10 July 2024

Reformist voters, who largely boycotted the 28 June special presidential election due to doubts about its potential for change, rallied in the 5 July runoff to secure an unexpected victory for reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian's campaign emphasised social reforms, economic improvement, and renewed nuclear negotiations. However, his ability to implement these changes is contingent upon approval from the Supreme Leader and support from a conservative-dominated parliament, presenting substantial challenges. The election could lead to increased engagement with the United States and a further easing tension with Gulf states, though it is unlikely to cause a rift between Iran and its MAIN allies, Russia and China.

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