PANGEA-RISK INSIGHT is a specialist intelligence membership platform that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts and analysis on political, security, and economic risk in Africa and the Middle East to a wide-ranging spread of client sectors.

All country risk analysis is supported by local source intelligence, and driven by proprietary risk methodology presented on a cost-effective, centralised, and user-friendly platform.

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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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COMMON FRAMEWORK LESSONS LEARNED

12 June 2024

WHAT NEXT FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR?

06 June 2024

IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

16 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S NEW GOVERNMENT FACES REALITY CHECK

10 Apr 2024

AFRICAN FOOD INSECURITY SPIKES

05 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S HIGH STAKES ELECTION

26 Mar 2024

UAE STEPS UP AFRICAN INVESTMENTS

05 Mar 2024

GHANA COCOA SLUMP

27 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK LAUNCHES CLIMATE INSIGHT

20 Feb 2024

DRC: A NEW ASSAULT ON GOMA

13 Feb 2024

BREAKING UP ECOWAS

07 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

(Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks)

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2024

Thu, 30 May 2024

China’s relationship with Africa is now almost completely dominated by critical minerals to drive the global energy transition and revive China’s own flagging economy. This renewed focus on minerals has come at the expense of sovereign lending and much-touted public-private-partnerships (PPP) under the Chinese flagship Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure strategy. This past month, I witnessed the impact of this shifting trend in both East Africa and the global commodities hub of Amsterdam.

SPECIAL REPORT: GROWING DEMAND FOR AFRICA’S CRITICAL MINERALS INTENSIFIES GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRIES

Thu, 23 May 2024

The global critical minerals market is adapting to heightened demand from renewable energy sectors and Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, leading to growing shifts in geopolitical dynamics. This includes major powers diversifying sources away from dominant suppliers such as China due to recent global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response, regions rich in minerals, such as Africa and the Middle East, are becoming focal points for new mining investments and strategic partnerships. Simultaneously, the United States and European Union Countries are reformulating policies to secure and stabilise mineral supply chains, reflecting the increasing importance of these resources for future technological advancements and economic security.

IRAN: PRESIDENT RAISI'S SUDDEN DEATH UNLIKELY TO ALTER EXTERNAL AND DOMESTIC POLICIES

Tue, 21 May 2024

The unexpected demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and the world. However, its impact on Iran’s strategic direction in both domestic and foreign policy is expected to be minimal. This is primarily due to the fact that Raisi's authority, despite his presidential title, was largely curtailed by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate power in the Islamic Republic. The succession dynamics now become crucial, potentially testing the administration's stability and its strategic pursuits, including Iran’s efforts to expand its influence.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - APRIL 2024

Tue, 30 April 2024

Africa has now stepped back from the proverbial debt cliff… This was the topic of our latest position paper published jointly this month with newly launched investment manager Acre Impact Capital. The white paper took a similarly optimistic stance as our original white paper, also jointly published in 2023, by analysing the latest market and bond trends. You can now download a complimentary copy of the white paper below and listen to our recorded webinar, in case you missed the live broadcast. My interview with CNBC Africa on this topic also summarises the key findings in the backdrop to the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in April.

MARITIME INSIGHT: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT IMPERILS ANOTHER MARITIME TRADE CHOKEPOINT

Mon, 22 April 2024

As direct military operations escalate between Iran and Israel through land, air, and sea engagements, there is growing potential for a broader Middle Eastern conflict and disruption of global oil shipments, mainly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The recent capture by Iran of a vessel linked to Israel in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with direct military actions against Israel, signals an unprecedented increase in maritime risks in the region. Despite this escalation, the muted reaction in oil prices is unexpected, indicating that increased risk premiums may already be incorporated into the market. Nevertheless, substantial risks continue to loom over the market, suggesting ongoing volatility and uncertainty in global oil supply chains.

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

Wed, 17 April 2024

At the outset of 2024, the prospects for African sovereign debt sustainability dramatically strengthened, as demonstrated by the return of several African issuers to the international bonds market. In our previous white paper on this topic, published in February 2023, we posited that many of Africa’s sovereigns facing debt sustainability challenges would have successfully restructured their most unaffordable loans, placing these countries on a path towards greater debt sustainability. Following a relatively challenged debt issuance environment in 2023, particularly for frontier market borrowers, select African sovereign borrowers used the opportunity to engage with investors in non-deal contexts, to provide updates on their credits. Such open and transparent dialogue has allowed some of these issuers to re-enter the market in 2024, while others prepare to do so in the coming months, including potentially Angola and Nigeria. Based on this optimistic trend, many African sovereigns are pulling themselves out of the so-called "African debt crisis" and are restoring their credentials as credible borrowers, while also cementing their reputations as reliable trade and investment partners. In this 2024 white paper, Acre Impact Capital and Pangea-Risk assess the outlook for Africa's sovereign debt sustainability and identify new opportunities for trade and investment.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MARCH 2024

Thu, 28 March 2024

This month, the United Arab Emirates committed to the largest ever investment into Egypt, let alone Africa as a whole. The UAE was already the world’s fourth largest source of foreign direct investment into Africa, and now looks set to challenge China, the EU, and US in those rankings. The emirates may be a so-called “Middle Power” globally, but on the African continent they are fast becoming a force to be reckoned with in terms of trade, security, investment, and debt dynamics. And the UAE is not the only Gulf power boosting its African presence to drive economic diversification at home and geopolitical clout abroad.

SPECIAL REPORT: SENEGAL’S NEW POLITICAL LEADERSHIP DUO FACES ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK

Tue, 26 March 2024

The incoming political duo that will take power in Senegal has promised a radical state interventionist approach to the economy and the renegotiation of energy contracts with foreign investors. However, their political ambitions will be curbed by a lack of political experience and no workable majority in parliament. Senegal’s incoming president has already watered down some of his most drastic pledges on fiscal and monetary policy, as he faces a fiscal tightrope and strict creditor conditionalities. A key indicator for Senegal’s policy and contract stability in its new political era will be determined by the extent to which the leadership duo remains intact, or if fractures will soon start to show between the two men.

EGYPT: MASSIVE UAE INVESTMENT BOLSTERS FOREX RESERVES AND CATALYSES ENLARGED IMF DEAL

Wed, 06 March 2024

The Egyptian government sealed its largest ever investment deal, valued at USD 35 billion, with an Emirati sovereign fund to develop the Ras El Hekma city. The agreement will bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves and ensure adequate buffers for Egyptian authorities to devalue the pound and at least move to a more flexible exchange rate regime, thus likely satisfying International Monetary Fund requirements for a new and enlarged financing package. However, the deal in itself is unlikely to ensure a sustainable turnaround for Egypt’s economy and will need to be complemented by long-awaited structural reforms. Meanwhile, Egypt faces a potential humanitarian crisis on its border with Israel, for which it will seek further external support.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - FEBRUARY 2024

Wed, 28 February 2024

Hot on the heels of the latest COP28 in Dubai last year, we have launched a Climate Insight feature on our membership platform assessing the impact of climate change on country risk in Africa and the Middle East. In our first free-to-read briefing, we evaluate the effects of recent natural disasters, noting increased risks of food insecurity, water scarcity, and violence, alongside heightened challenges for businesses from environmental activism and litigation. Climate change-associated risks in Africa and the Middle East are projected to get worse over the coming years and will become an increasingly central part of our country risk forecasting to support our clients’ risk mitigation strategies.

CLIMATE INSIGHT: DISRUPTIVE WEATHER STRAINS WATER AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST

Tue, 20 February 2024

In 2023, natural disasters, intensified by the El Niño phenomenon and unprecedented high temperatures, drastically impacted Africa and the Middle East. In Africa alone, disasters such as floods and droughts affected over 34 million people, causing widespread loss of life and damage. The MENA region faced its own challenges with severe heatwaves and acute water shortages, underscoring its susceptibility to the long-term impacts of climate change while depleting critical resources. The expected peak of El Niño in mid-2024 threatens to exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to increased food insecurity, further water scarcity, and intensified communal violence. At the same time, the increasing frequency of global environmental activism reflects growing public demand for action on climate change, raising targeted protests and litigation risks to high-emitting business sectors.

SAUDI ARABIA: AFRICAN MINING INVESTMENTS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY UNDERPIN ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION

Thu, 15 February 2024

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has markedly intensified its involvement in Africa by committing to investments exceeding USD 25 billion and establishing numerous economic cooperation agreements across essential sectors, including energy, transport, and health. Simultaneously, as the Gaza war intensifies, Saudi Arabia has leaned strongly on Iran to avoid escalating the conflict elsewhere in the Gulf, offering economic incentives for compliance. The Saudi economy is projected to experience a growth rate of approximately 2.6 percent in 2024, with the non-oil sector anticipated as the primary growth driver. Nevertheless, this outlook is subject to high levels of uncertainty, influenced by the volatile oil market, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and the impact of domestic reforms.

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MEDIA

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Besseling: End of Togo electoral cycle assures policy continuity

Tuesday, 14 May 2024

Robert Besseling, CEO, speaks to CNBC Africa about the outcome of Togo’s parliamentary elections.

View the original here
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Navigating Africa's evolving risk landscape

Monday, 29 April 2024

Robert Besseling, CEO, speaks to the Norwegian-African Business Association about Africa’s risk landscape amid rising global instability and economic uncertainty.

View the original here
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PANGEA-RISK: African sovereigns becoming more creditworthy

Friday, 19 April 2024

Robert Besseling, CEO, speaks to CNBC Africa about the latest African sovereign debt developments and the possibility of an African credit rating agency.

View the original here

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