COUNTRY RISK FORECASTING SOLUTIONS

Helping investors, lenders, and corporates navigate political, security, and macroeconomic uncertainty and leverage opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Experience-led analysis, delivered by senior researchers, analysts, and consultants

Global human intelligence network, providing trusted in-country insight where it matters most

Technology-enabled risk intelligence, combining real-time monitoring with human oversight

Proprietary country risk methodology, ensuring consistency, comparability, and forward-looking forecasts

Specialist focus on frontier and emerging markets, informed by decades of collective regional experience

Why organisations choose Pangea-Risk.

We help organisations navigate complex markets with clear, forward-looking intelligence and practical advisory support so our clients can anticipate risks and move confidently into new opportunities.

Our Solutions

Insight is our specialist country risk platform for forecasting risks and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets. Powered by our proprietary methodology and enhanced by AI technology, Insight provides clear, comparable intelligence to help organisations anticipate disruptions and plan confidently.

Members gain access to:

  • Country outlooks offering one-year political, economic, and security forecasts
  • Risk ratings updated on a live basis and reviewed quarterly across global markets
  • Daily Insight briefings on developments in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia
  • Media Monitor tracking real-time, high-priority global developments

Insight delivers timely, data-driven analysis that supports strategic decisions and reveals emerging opportunities.

Explore Insight

Advisory offers tailored intelligence and consulting support to help organisations understand risks, build resilience, and operate confidently in complex markets. Combining rigorous forecasting, regional expertise, and human source networks, we deliver tailored outputs shaped around client needs.

Our services include:

  • Standalone assessments and briefings across political, economic, security, and sector risks
  • Tailored intelligence reporting monitoring developments affecting operations
  • Specialised consulting to build custom methodologies and strengthen intelligence and risk assessment capabilities

Advisory provides clear, method-driven guidance that helps clients navigate uncertainty, assess exposure, and unlock opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Explore Advisory

Pangea-Risk Free-To-Read Insight Briefings

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2025

Wed, 17 December 2025

As we approach the end of 2025, I am particularly proud of some of the milestones achieved at Pangea-Risk this year - from extending Insight platform country coverage to Asia, to expanding our Advisory bespoke consulting practice, and introducing artificial intelligence as the first step in our automated technology journey. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a feature on this year’s primary developments for emerging & frontier markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, and assess the accuracy of our key country risk forecasts. You can also watch our team’s latest webinar on Gulf trade with the Global South.


INSIGHT 2025 IN REVIEW

Wed, 10 December 2025

2025 has been defined by sharp trade disruption, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and unexpected political shocks across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Yet, despite persistent global uncertainty, several emerging markets strengthened their strategic importance through Gulf investment, South–South finance, and new regional systems over the course of the year. In our 2025 review, Pangea-Risk highlights where our forecasts held, where volatility exceeded expectations, and what this means for 2026.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - NOVEMBER 2025

Wed, 26 November 2025

Pangea-Risk and Standard Bank’s Energy and Infrastructure Finance team have collaborated this year to introduce a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. We have jointly begun developing a data-driven methodology assessing opportunities and risks in high-risk markets through sovereign, subnational, and sectoral analysis. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a feature on Pangea-Risk’s collaboration with Standard Bank to develop a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. Take a look at the webinar for a summary of the key points.


REIMAGINING PROJECT & RESOURCES RISK

Thu, 13 November 2025

Pangea-Risk and Standard Bank introduce a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. Country risk ratings are a reliable compass for standardised risk assessments at the sovereign level. Yet, a sovereign-level score cannot distinguish a stable project enclave from a volatile hinterland, or a well-regulated industry from a nascent one. For export credit agencies, private insurers, and commercial banks, this gap translates into missed opportunities or unexpected losses, particularly in the complex African context. Pangea-Risk, in partnership with Standard Bank’s Energy and Infrastructure Finance team, have begun the development of a new Localised Opportunity and Risk Evaluation platform to turn risks into opportunities. This methodology delivers a concise and complementary lens that examines how location, sector, and resource dynamics reshape real exposure beyond the sovereign baseline.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2025

Wed, 29 October 2025

Amid intensifying geopolitical volatility, trade is no longer a neutral engine of growth but a theatre of strategic influence. States are weaponising trade corridors and logistics assets not simply to move goods, but to project power, enforce regulatory preferences, and test new models of economic sovereignty. This shift marks a decisive break from the old logic of globalisation. Supply chains are now determined as much by alignment and access to political capital as by price or efficiency. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the weaponisation of trade in the context of emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. This analysis is accompanied by a new webinar on private credit opportunities across the Global South.


SPECIAL REPORT: STRATEGIC RIVALRIES AND SECURITY SHOCKS REDEFINE THE GLOBAL TRADE LANDSCAPE

Wed, 22 October 2025

Escalating strategic competition in Asia is destabilising trade routes, with security confrontations and foreign policy realignments deepening operational uncertainty. In the Middle East, maritime insecurity and rival logistics strategies are driving risks across critical shipping and energy corridors. Meanwhile, Africa’s shifting trade geography, shaped by changing external partnerships and contested regional integration, is exposing exporters to legal, regulatory, and political volatility. Together, these developments illustrate how state-driven foreign policy strategies are compounding exposure across interconnected corridors, redefining risk for insurers and commercial operators alike.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2025

Wed, 01 October 2025

Generation Z protests have accelerated across South and Southeast Asia, as well as parts of Africa and even Türkiye, over the past month. In September, Pangea-Risk analysis focused on both the youth dividend of fast-growing emerging markets, notably in Southeast Asia, but also the threat of youth political mobilisation. Socio-economic frustrations and political activism are driving fresh challenges to governments. The latter trend will undoubtedly impact several upcoming African elections in October. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the threat posed by Gen Z mobilisations to political stability and commercial operations. We also publish a new recorded webinar where our analysis team discusses the interconnections between Asian, African, and the Middle East’s trade and investment flows.


SPECIAL REPORT: RISING YOUTH MOBILISATION AND THE CHALLENGE TO POLITICAL STABILITY GLOBALLY

Wed, 17 September 2025

Youth-led protests are reshaping politics and impacting economies across emerging markets, with unrest spreading from Nepal to Kenya, Indonesia, to Mongolia. Driven by inequality, corruption, and exclusion, these movements mobilise rapidly through digital platforms and resist blunt state repression. As demographic shifts intensify, recurring protest cycles are set to become structural features of politics, testing resilience and demanding forward-looking strategies from policymakers and businesses alike.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2025

Thu, 28 August 2025

In August, Pangea-Risk expanded coverage of our flagship Insight platform to Southeast Asia and China, extending country risk analysis to 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. This exciting development supports our mission to foster South-South collaboration in trade and investment, while mitigating risks in these fast-growing markets. Our analysis and forecasting capabilities focus on the nexus that interconnects some of the world’s most resilient and buoyant economies. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock special reports on Southeast Asia’s demographic dividend and on the resilience of the credit and political risk insurance market amid global challenges and trade volatility.


SPECIAL REPORT: SOUTHEAST ASIAN YOUTH DRIVE GROWTH AND INNOVATION AMID STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

Tue, 26 August 2025

Southeast Asia’s youth are both the engine and the uncertainty of its future. Their demographic weight has fuelled expanding middle classes and rising productivity, but youth unemployment and high levels of informal sector employment risk undermining this momentum. These pressures, compounded by trade disruptions, are already shaping political dynamics and investor sentiment across the region. At the same time, a generation of entrepreneurs is building fintech, blockchain, and AI solutions that anchor Southeast Asia’s technological rise. This energy should translate into sustained growth if governments and businesses can convert the potential of youth into opportunity.


SPECIAL REPORT: GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

Tue, 19 August 2025

The global trade credit and political risk insurance market has remained remarkably upbeat on the back of the realignment of supply chains and shifting trading relations in response to US tariffs. Counterparty risk mitigation has become a C-suite conversation in corporates and banks alike, driving opportunity for the insurance market. Trade protectionism, volatile energy markets, political upheaval, and rising resource nationalism are reshaping risk profiles across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Insurers are increasingly focusing on project- and sector-specific coverage, while investors must navigate shifting regulatory frameworks and evolving trade barriers.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2025

Thu, 31 July 2025

In a series of frantic meetings in July spanning from Washington DC to Stockholm in Sweden and Ayrshire in Scotland, the world’s largest trade partners managed to avoid a global trade war. The new normal for United States (US) tariffs on foreign goods starts at 15 percent based on deals with Japan and the European Union. Many emerging markets that have not concluded a deal before the 1 August deadline could face tariffs of up to 50 percent. Foreign companies have so far been absorbing the cost of trade with the US, but many firms have now begun raising prices on their US-bound goods. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the impact of US tariffs on emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. We also unlock a briefing on the resurgence of Red Sea shipping risks with further consequences for global trade and supply chains. And from August, Pangea-Risk expands country risk forecasting to Southeast Asia and China, extending our coverage to a total of 100 Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East!


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Pangea-Risk Analysis Webinars

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WEBINAR: NEW HORIZONS FOR MIDDLE EAST TRADE

10 December 2025

The Pangea-Risk team joins the ITFA Middle East Regional Committee for a webinar that places Middle East trade with the Global South in the spotlight as we identify exciting opportunities across Africa and Asia for 2026 and assess country risks in these regions along the way.

EASTWARD BOUND: GULF CAPITAL AND THE STRATEGIC PIVOT TO ASIAN MARKETS

09 December 2025

Gulf economies have increasingly turned towards Asia in recent years to expand trade and investment ties, reflecting a broader shift in the global trade landscape. Join Pangea-Risk’s Country Risk Analyst Jack Brodsky as he speaks with Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni and Head of Asia Forecasting Saif Islam to examine the key drivers, strategic implications, and future direction of this evolving Gulf-Asia economic engagement.

FROM US DOLLARS TO CHINESE YUAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR REFINANCING AFRICA’S DEBT

25 November 2025

A new era of China-Africa economic engagement is unfolding as African countries move towards refinancing their debt to China from US dollars to Chinese yuan. Join Pangea-Risk’s Senior Africa Analyst Zaynab Hoosen as she speaks to Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni and Head of Asia Forecasting Saif Islam about the implications of these deals in the context of the broader global financial system.

REIMAGINING PROJECT & RESOURCE RISK: INTRODUCING THE LORE FRAMEWORK

13 November 2025

Join Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid and Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni as they unveil LORE - a groundbreaking Pangea-Risk and Standard Bank collaborative framework redefining project and resource risk across Africa through local, sectoral, and resilience-based insight.

CÔTE D’IVOIRE AFTER THE POLLS: CONTINUITY, STABILITY, AND THE ROAD AHEAD

03 November 2025

Côte d’Ivoire’s 25 October election reaffirmed political stability, though succession and investor confidence remain uncertain. Join Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid and CEO Robert Besseling as they unpack results and market implications.

EMERGING MARKETS 2025: PRIVATE CREDIT’S NEW FRONTIER?

22 October 2025

Private credit is pivoting from the West to the dynamic growth engines of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, and investors are redefining what constitutes opportunity and risk.

WEBINAR: AFRICAN ELECTIONS OUTLOOK

08 October 2025

With contentious elections around the corner in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, Head of Advisory, Gabrielle Reid, interviews Pangea-Risk Africa analysis team and CEO Robert Besseling on the commercial impact of these tense ballots.

TANZANIA: PRESIDENT SET FOR VICTORY IN OCTOBER 2025 ELECTIONS

03 October 2025

Tanzania’s president and ruling party are likely to retain power in the October 2025 elections, ensuring policy continuity and improvements in the investment climate.

ASIA’S STRATEGIC ROLE IN GLOBAL ENERGY, MINERALS, AND INVESTMENT FLOWS WEBINAR

24 September 2025

Asia is emerging as a pivotal force in global trade and investment, balancing vulnerabilities with opportunities. In this webinar, Pangea-Risk’s regional specialists explore Asia’s rising role as an investor in Africa’s fast-growing markets.

PANGEA-RISK EXPANDS COUNTRY RISK FORECASTING COVERAGE TO ASIA

04 September 2025

JAPAN SEEKS TO DEEPEN ECONOMIC TIES WITH AFRICA

27 August 2025

GLOBAL TRADE REALIGNMENT BOOSTS CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MARKET

20 August 2025

In The News


...
Russia-ally Touadera seeks third term in Central African Republic

Thursday, 25 December 2025

Pangea-Risk CEO Robert Besseling speaks with Reuters about the December elections in CAR

View the original here
...
Risks ga-LORE: Accurate credit ratings in emerging markets

Monday, 15 December 2025

Pangea-Risk Advisory team lead Gabrielle Reid shares insights with Trade Finance Global on the new project and resources risk methodology developed jointly with Standard Bank

View the original here
...
Direct link to Pangea-Risk Advisory report on Mozambique LNG commissioned by Dutch Ministry of Finance

Tuesday, 02 December 2025

Pangea-Risk provided independent specialist intelligence to the Dutch Ministry of Finance on the security situation in northern Mozambique

View the original here

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