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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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THE YEAR IN 2025

07 January 2025

UGANDA: HYDROCARBONS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

12 December 2024

LOOKING BACK AT AFRICAN ELECTIONS IN 2024

04 December 2024

AFRICA’S NEXT DEBT CRISIS?

17 October 2024

TOWARDS A NEW WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

03 October 2024

AFRICAN DEBT BINGE HITS PAUSE BUTTON

31 July 2024

WESTERN INVESTORS SEEK ANGOLAN OPPORTUNITY

09 July 2024

COMMON FRAMEWORK LESSONS LEARNED

12 June 2024

WHAT NEXT FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR?

06 June 2024

IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

16 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S NEW GOVERNMENT FACES REALITY CHECK

10 Apr 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

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MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2024

Fri, 20 December 2024

Few country risk analysts foresaw this month’s fall of the long entrenched Assad regime in Syria, or at least not the rapid progression of events after rebels seized the city of Aleppo on 4 December. And yet the indicators were there as opposition groups coordinated the offensive after a year of strategic planning. Similarly, human source intelligence and local knowledge provided the clues that pointed towards opposition victories in many African elections this year. For this reason, Pangea-Risk has moved towards an indicator-based methodology that underpins all our country risk assessments. In this final Monthly Insight of the year, we unlock our country risk vulnerability model projecting the impact of elections in 2025, as well as our latest analysis on Syria, as the country enters a new era that will have a profound impact on the wider region.


KEY ELECTIONS TO WATCH IN 2025

Wed, 18 December 2024

The 2025 election cycle across Frontier & Emerging Markets highlights diverse country risks and instability factors. Leadership uncertainties dominate in Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, where instability risks are driven by the absence of a clear succession plan and term extension ambitions by incumbents. Power consolidation will shape elections in Egypt, Georgia, and Iraq, where entrenched ruling factions depend on political repression. Socioeconomic grievances amplify unrest risks in Malawi, while a delay in Niger’s transition to civilian rule poses risks for broader insecurity. Meanwhile, upcoming elections in Gabon and Tanzania offer a potential opportunity for current leaders to entrench their power. We pick the top ten elections to watch in 2025.


SYRIA: ASSAD’S SUDDEN COLLAPSE COULD FUEL POWER STRUGGLES AND REGIONAL SCRAMBLE FOR INFLUENCE

Wed, 11 December 2024

The rapid collapse of President Bashar Al Assad’s rule offers an opportunity for democratic transition but could also fuel further fragmentation and internal power struggles. Parallel to these domestic struggles, the international community has initiated a disconnected transition process, with the United Nations pursuing a formal framework. At the same time, rebel forces unilaterally implement their own transition in Damascus. Regionally, Iran’s diminished presence and the severance of its supply lines to Hezbollah signal a weakening of its influence as Türkiye capitalises on the shifting dynamics to expand its strategic foothold.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - NOVEMBER 2024

Wed, 27 November 2024

The outcome of the US presidential election earlier this month triggered a shockwave across Emerging and Frontier Markets. In Africa, a second Donald Trump presidency will affect trade, development financing, and security cooperation. However, the impact will not be uniform across the continent, and some countries could benefit from a more transactional approach. For the Middle East, central to US policy would be renewed efforts to broker Saudi-Israel normalisation, which would be complicated by regional rivalries and Saudi Arabia’s balancing of interests with China and Russia. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock two popular features on the implications of the incoming US administration on both Africa and the Middle East. Some of our most read analysis this month includes briefings on debt restructuring in Republic of Congo and debt sustainability in Angola.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP PRESIDENCY IMPLICATIONS FOR AFRICA

Fri, 08 November 2024

A second Donald Trump presidency in the US will likely affect trade, development financing, and security cooperation in Africa. However, the impact will not be uniform across the continent. African countries that largely steer clear of challenging US power on the global stage are expected to continue to benefit from engagement with the newly elected administration. Others that have positioned themselves closer to the US’s perceived global rivals or do not offer immediate commercial benefits may fall lower on the US’s list of priorities.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP PRESIDENCY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

Thu, 07 November 2024

President-elect Trump is expected to prioritise an Israel-centric security agenda, maintain military backing for Israel while reducing direct US military presence, and promote de-escalation in the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Renewed efforts to broker Saudi-Israel normalisation would be central to his Middle East policy, though complicated by regional rivalries and Saudi Arabia’s balancing of interests with China and Russia. Meanwhile, US sanctions on Iran would remain stringent despite attempts by Iran’s leadership to negotiate relief.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2024

Wed, 30 October 2024

Kazan 2024 was no Bretton Woods 1944… A lack of consensus among BRICS members thwarted ambitions to rival the dominance of the US dollar in global trade transactions. Despite new local currency initiatives, the BRICS New Development Bank still trails the World Bank and IMF. Yet, the launch of local currency payments and clearance systems should enhance trade and investment flows among emerging and frontier markets, while stabilising their forex positions. No wonder that dozens of Global South states are queuing to join the bloc. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a popular feature on the looming African domestic debt crisis, and we assess the outlook of two new BRICS partner countries – Uzbekistan and Uganda. We also explain why oil giant Saudi Arabia has not joined the club yet…


SPECIAL REPORT: AFRICAN DOMESTIC BORROWING SURGES AMID GLOBAL MARKET CONSTRAINTS

Thu, 17 October 2024

The upcoming IMF and World Bank annual meetings should focus on Africa's deepening debt challenges, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable fiscal solutions. African governments have increasingly relied on domestic debt amid constrained access to international capital markets, driven by low credit ratings and rising debt sustainability risks. Governments are turning to trade finance solutions and concessional loans to bridge budget gaps and finance infrastructure. Despite some innovative strategies like climate bonds and bilateral trade agreements, debt servicing remains a notable strain, forcing countries to cut spending on essential services and infrastructure.


UZBEKISTAN: PRIVATISATION DELAYS AND MANAGED ELECTIONS UNDERMINE REFORM PERCEPTIONS

Tue, 15 October 2024

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s vision of a ‘New Uzbekistan,’ focused on political and economic reforms, continues to attract investor interest. However, his efforts to position himself as a reformer have not substantially altered the country's centralised control of political and economic power. The government’s push for privatisation of state-owned enterprises has yielded mixed results, with investors questioning the authorities’ true intent. While some political reforms have been introduced under Mirziyoyev, they have been largely procedural, and the upcoming legislative election will remain tightly controlled. Despite these dynamics, several international financial organisations have recently praised Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic health.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2024

Mon, 30 September 2024

How do we mitigate conflict in a world with deep ideological divisions, shrinking resources, and disrupted supply chains, exacerbated by climate change…? This question was the recurring theme at the United Nations General Assembly that knotted together myriad attendee discussions in late September. The impact of conflict on country risk in Frontier and Emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East is also a primary focus of our analysis published on the newly expanded Insight country risk solutions platform that we relaunched this month. Popular features among our Insight members that are free to read in this Monthly Insight include an assessment of geopolitical rivalries to access critical minerals, the impact of climate change on country risk in the Sahel, and the regional effect of the escalating war in Lebanon.


CLIMATE INSIGHT: RESOURCE SHORTAGES IN THE SAHEL DRIVE EXPANSION OF INSURGENTS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Wed, 25 September 2024

Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and desertification in the Sahel are intensifying food insecurity and displacing millions, with shrinking water supplies and arable land putting immense pressure on livelihoods. Resource scarcity is fuelling conflicts over land and water, particularly between farming and herding communities, with Lake Chad’s shrinkage amplifying communal violence. Islamist militant groups are exploiting these environmental vulnerabilities, controlling water sources and recruiting from marginalised communities, further destabilising the region and undermining government authority. The expulsion of Western forces has weakened international support, reducing critical funding for climate-related projects.


LEBANON: HEZBOLLAH SUFFERS A MAJOR OPERATIONAL BLOW WHILE STRAINING TO PREVENT A BROADER WAR WITH ISRAEL

Mon, 23 September 2024

Israeli intelligence exploited Hezbollah’s supply chain vulnerabilities by targeting pagers used by its members, exposing the group’s operational weaknesses. The attack deepened Hezbollah’s internal challenges, already strained by recent Israeli strikes on its leadership, as the group struggles to respond without provoking a broader conflict. Politically, Hezbollah faces constraints within Lebanon, where opposition to a full-scale war is growing, and its actions remain tied to Iran’s strategic decisions. Meanwhile, Israel has shifted its military focus northward, preparing for potential escalation, with Israeli leadership indicating a readiness to extend its operations from Gaza to Lebanon.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Post-Assad, Could Qatar-Turkey Gas Pipeline Be Revived?

Tuesday, 17 December 2024

Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni comments on Middle East energy dynamics

View the original here
...
Africa’s record election year

Friday, 13 December 2024

Africa Analyst Zaynab Hoosen speaks on CNBC Africa about the legacy of Africa's elections in 2024

View the original here
...
Houthis Continue Attacks, Unlikely to Stop After Assad’s Fall

Thursday, 12 December 2024

Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni comments on the regional impact of Syria's political transition

View the original here

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