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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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OIL PRICE VOLATILITY REDEFINES EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISKS

19 June 2025

SAHELIAN STATES COURT NEW PARTNERS, BUT SOVEREIGNTY AGENDA FACES INSTITUTIONAL HURDLES

13 June 2025

NORTH AFRICA TRAVEL ENVIRONMENT STABLE DESPITE LOCALISED RISKS AND SECURITY CONTROLS

05 June 2025

EAST AFRICA TRADE BOLSTERED BY INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION AND DIGITISATION

14 May 2025

RESOURCE-RICH STATES USE MINERALS FOR DIPLOMATIC LEVERAGE AMID GREAT POWER RIVALRY

08 May 2025

THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL CHANGE ON AFRICA’S CREDIT OUTLOOK IN 2025

09 April 2025

DRC: M23 INSURGENCY DRIVES REGIONAL WAR RISKS

02 April 2025

ANGOLA: SOVEREIGN PREPARES RETURN TO INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKET

26 March 2025

SOUTH AFRICA: US RIFT WIDENS WHILE COALITION GRAPPLES WITH FISCAL BUDGET DEADLOCK

19 March 2025

EGYPT BLOCKS US GAZA RELOCATION PLAN, WEIGHS SECURITY RISKS

13 March 2025

SYRIA: INTERIM GOVERNMENT MAKES STRIDES TO LIFT SANCTIONS

20 February 2025

EAST AFRICA: ESCALATING CONFLICT IN THE DRC POSES REGIONAL WAR RISKS

12 February 2025

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

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MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2025

Thu, 26 June 2025

In June, our team criss-crossed conferences and summits in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East to participate in discussions on trade, investment, and security policy. Apart from the regional impact of the escalating war between Israel and Iran, a recurring theme in such talks has been the long-standing concern over the cost of capital for African financial institutions. In the context of annual meetings of some of Africa’s largest financial institutions in June, a recent credit rating downgrade of one of these organisations, as well as multiple controversial sovereign downgrades in Africa earlier this year, have reignited an important debate in which we at Pangea-Risk are actively participating. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on African debt restructurings and credit rating mechanisms that earlier this month already featured prominently in international media. Separately, and ahead of our wider Asian country risk coverage expansion, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the economic and security outlook of the world’s most populated nation, India.


SPECIAL REPORT: CREDIT RATING AND RESTRUCTURING DISPUTES EXPOSE MISALIGNMENT ON AFRICA DEBT RISKS

Thu, 12 June 2025

The recent credit rating downgrade of Afreximbank, a key Africa-based financial institution, has reignited concerns over elevated borrowing costs on the continent. The downgrade comes against the backdrop of a dispute among international creditors over the inclusion of loans from African multilateral institutions in sovereign restructurings. Renegotiating the terms of these debt instruments could further exacerbate existing perceptions of elevated risk in Africa, driving up sovereign borrowing costs and curtailing access to capital for development projects and trade finance, particularly during times of global economic shocks. In this context, Africa is seeking to launch its own credit ratings agency later in 2025.


INDIA: STRONG GROWTH MASKS INDUSTRIAL WEAKNESSES AND GEOPOLITICAL COMMERCIAL RISKS

Wed, 11 June 2025

India’s strong first-quarter growth masks underlying vulnerabilities, including declining foreign investment and industrial weaknesses. Geopolitical rivalries, particularly involving China and Pakistan, are compounding these challenges, disrupting trade, exposing critical supply chain risks, and complicating airspace access. These frictions also intersect with India’s expanding aviation sector, where rapid growth ambitions are threatened by regulatory gaps and infrastructure shortfalls. Meanwhile, the revocation of Çelebi’s security clearance underscores the growing exposure of foreign firms to political and reputational risks in India’s increasingly nationalist policy environment, where geopolitical alignments may shape some commercial decisions.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - MAY 2025

Thu, 29 May 2025

The US president’s three-state visit to the Gulf in May was underpinned by shifting geopolitical alliances, American protectionism, and incentivisation of foreign investment into the world’s largest economy by cash-flush Gulf monarchies. The resultant flurry of announcements on deals in the energy, aviation & military, and artificial intelligence sectors were intertwined by intensifying global competition for critical minerals. In particular, the US is leveraging the Gulf’s capital and strategic position to secure access to unexplored minerals across frontier and emerging markets in the Global South. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Insight Briefing on the mining country of Zambia, where American, Chinese, European, and Emirati stakeholders are tussling over access to some of the world’s most important reserves of such minerals considered critical to their respective economies. Separately, we offer a look into our analysis on May’s three-day conflict in South Asia and the impact on Pakistan’s economy and fiscal outlook.


ZAMBIA: COPPER OUTPUT SURGE BOOSTS GROWTH OUTLOOK AMID LINGERING DEBT CONSTRAINTS

Wed, 14 May 2025

Zambia has recorded a sharp increase in copper output in early 2025, signalling renewed momentum in the mining sector and providing a foundation for an optimistic economic outlook. Foreign investors' interest in the country’s mining sector continues to support Zambia’s economic trajectory. However, the prolonged debt restructuring process continues to strain fiscal space, while the government’s constitutional reform agenda is heightening political competition ahead of the 2026 elections.


PAKISTAN: CROSS-BORDER ESCALATION WITH INDIA TRIGGERS ECONOMIC FALLOUT DESPITE IMF LIFELINE

Tue, 13 May 2025

India’s cross-border strikes in early May triggered the most intense India-Pakistan clashes in decades, halted by a US-brokered ceasefire on 10 May. The escalation rattled investor confidence and disrupted key sectors in Pakistan, including aviation, trade, and financial services, while raising concerns about exacerbating macroeconomic vulnerabilities. One day before the ceasefire, the International Monetary Fund approved USD 2.5 billion in funding to support Pakistan’s fragile recovery. Although the package offers temporary relief, persistent geopolitical frictions, domestic insecurity, and economic fragility continue to weigh on the country’s outlook.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - APRIL 2025

Wed, 30 April 2025

For a third consecutive year, our team collaborated with investment manager Acre Impact Capital to jointly publish a white paper on African sovereign debt themes and to push back against prevalent negativity surrounding the continent’s sovereigns. This year, our white paper was given extra relevance by the US government’s temporary decision to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on many of its trade partners in the Global South, while maintaining new baseline levies on trade with most African countries. Our white paper has undoubtedly helped to shine some clarity on a confusing and disruptive month for global trade. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock the white paper on the impact of political change on Africa’s credit outlook. We also offer all readers an opportunity to watch the recording of a gripping webinar hosted by the paper’s authors. Meanwhile, our Insight Members can take another look at the three special reports we published on the impact of the US tariffs on trade with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.


LIBYA: ENERGY INVESTMENT BECOMES A LEVER OF FOREIGN-BACKED POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION

Thu, 17 April 2025

The United States’ military and diplomatic engagement with the Libyan National Army (LNA) reflects a recalibrated strategy to counter Russia’s entrenched presence but is reinforcing fragmented authority, marginalising the Government of National Unity, and entrenching dual security structures. The energy sector, while presenting investment potential through new public tenders, remains divided, with the eastern oil zones effectively controlled by the LNA and leveraged for strategic partnerships with Russia and China. Libya’s fiscal model remains exposed to global oil price volatility, with minimal non-oil revenue, opaque spending, and a widening deficit that threatens macroeconomic stability.


THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL CHANGE ON AFRICA’S CREDIT OUTLOOK IN 2025

Tue, 08 April 2025

The Impact of Political Change on Africa’s Credit Outlook in 2025 examines the critical intersections between political shifts and credit risk across the continent. As Africa navigates the outcomes of key elections in 2024 and 2025 as well as geopolitical realignments off the back of President Donald Trump’s re-election, some caution over Africa’s credit outlook and ability to service debt is well placed. That said, African borrowers are showing signs of resilience that could bode well for mitigating these risks.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - MARCH 2025

Thu, 27 March 2025

In his first two months in office, US President Donald Trump has uprooted some of the world’s most established alliances, entrenched trade policies, and essential foreign aid flows, in a shock to the rules-based global consensus that America has led for almost 80 years. Trump’s policies have had an immeasurable impact on frontier and emerging markets across the world. As a result, international financial flows are noticeably shifting away from renewables towards hydrocarbons, critical minerals, and military & defence sectors. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock an Advisory report on the implications of US tariffs and trade policies on emerging markets and we showcase analysis on the impact of western foreign aid withdrawals. We also highlight the remarkable expansion of African infrastructure and associated opportunities for trade and logistics.


SPECIAL REPORT: THE IMPLICATIONS OF US PROTECTIONIST TRADE POLICIES FOR EMERGING MARKETS

Wed, 12 March 2025

President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies have upended global commerce, shifting US policy from multilateral cooperation to protectionist tariffs and politically motivated trade measures. While the US seeks to rebalance trade deficits, so too is the Trump administration seeking to extract non-trade concessions from its partners. Africa’s regional integration efforts through AfCFTA and Gulf investment in alternative markets point to renewed adaptation among emerging markets. With shifting alliances, potential debt pressures, and evolving trade norms, businesses and policymakers must rethink traditional models to stay competitive.


SPECIAL REPORT: INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS BOOST AFRICAN TRADE AND DRIVE REGIONAL INTEGRATION

Tue, 11 March 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a transformational shift in infrastructure investment, enhancing transport, energy, and logistics networks to unlock trade potential under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). As China scales back large-scale lending, blended finance, public-private partnerships, and Gulf investments are driving emerging infrastructure funding models. Strategic infrastructure projects that stretch beyond borders are reducing trade barriers, boosting regional supply chains, and positioning Sub-Saharan Africa as a competitive player in global markets.


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IN THE NEWS

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Pangea-Risk: Côte d'Ivoire faces rising risks to political stability

Thursday, 26 June 2025

Pangea-Risk CEO Robert Besseling speaks on the tense lead-up to elections in Ivory Coast to CNBC Africa

View the original here
...
2025 General Assemblies – In Luanda, investors, influencers, and insurers facing African risk

Friday, 20 June 2025

Pangea-Risk Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid addressed the AGM & Investor Roundtable of the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI) in Luanda, Angola

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...
Iran and Israel conflict

Monday, 16 June 2025

Head of Risk Forecasting, Bilal Bassiouni, unpacks the latest on the Israel and Iran conflict.

View the original here

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