PANGEA-RISK INSIGHT is a specialist intelligence membership platform that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts and analysis on political, security, and economic risk in Africa and the Middle East to a wide-ranging spread of client sectors.

All country risk analysis is supported by local source intelligence, and driven by proprietary risk methodology presented on a cost-effective, centralised, and user-friendly platform.

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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

16 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S NEW GOVERNMENT FACES REALITY CHECK

10 Apr 2024

AFRICAN FOOD INSECURITY SPIKES

05 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S HIGH STAKES ELECTION

26 Mar 2024

UAE STEPS UP AFRICAN INVESTMENTS

05 Mar 2024

GHANA COCOA SLUMP

27 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK LAUNCHES CLIMATE INSIGHT

20 Feb 2024

DRC: A NEW ASSAULT ON GOMA

13 Feb 2024

BREAKING UP ECOWAS

07 Feb 2024

IS MOZAMBIQUE SAFE FOR LNG RESUMPTION?

30 Jan 2024

NIGER: AFRICAS FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY

23 Jan 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

(Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks)

MONTHLY INSIGHT - APRIL 2024

Tue, 30 April 2024

Africa has now stepped back from the proverbial debt cliff… This was the topic of our latest position paper published jointly this month with newly launched investment manager Acre Impact Capital. The white paper took a similarly optimistic stance as our original white paper, also jointly published in 2023, by analysing the latest market and bond trends. You can now download a complimentary copy of the white paper below and listen to our recorded webinar, in case you missed the live broadcast. My interview with CNBC Africa on this topic also summarises the key findings in the backdrop to the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in April.

MARITIME INSIGHT: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT IMPERILS ANOTHER MARITIME TRADE CHOKEPOINT

Mon, 22 April 2024

As direct military operations escalate between Iran and Israel through land, air, and sea engagements, there is growing potential for a broader Middle Eastern conflict and disruption of global oil shipments, mainly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The recent capture by Iran of a vessel linked to Israel in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with direct military actions against Israel, signals an unprecedented increase in maritime risks in the region. Despite this escalation, the muted reaction in oil prices is unexpected, indicating that increased risk premiums may already be incorporated into the market. Nevertheless, substantial risks continue to loom over the market, suggesting ongoing volatility and uncertainty in global oil supply chains.

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

Wed, 17 April 2024

At the outset of 2024, the prospects for African sovereign debt sustainability dramatically strengthened, as demonstrated by the return of several African issuers to the international bonds market. In our previous white paper on this topic, published in February 2023, we posited that many of Africa’s sovereigns facing debt sustainability challenges would have successfully restructured their most unaffordable loans, placing these countries on a path towards greater debt sustainability. Following a relatively challenged debt issuance environment in 2023, particularly for frontier market borrowers, select African sovereign borrowers used the opportunity to engage with investors in non-deal contexts, to provide updates on their credits. Such open and transparent dialogue has allowed some of these issuers to re-enter the market in 2024, while others prepare to do so in the coming months, including potentially Angola and Nigeria. Based on this optimistic trend, many African sovereigns are pulling themselves out of the so-called "African debt crisis" and are restoring their credentials as credible borrowers, while also cementing their reputations as reliable trade and investment partners. In this 2024 white paper, Acre Impact Capital and Pangea-Risk assess the outlook for Africa's sovereign debt sustainability and identify new opportunities for trade and investment.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - MARCH 2024

Thu, 28 March 2024

This month, the United Arab Emirates committed to the largest ever investment into Egypt, let alone Africa as a whole. The UAE was already the world’s fourth largest source of foreign direct investment into Africa, and now looks set to challenge China, the EU, and US in those rankings. The emirates may be a so-called “Middle Power” globally, but on the African continent they are fast becoming a force to be reckoned with in terms of trade, security, investment, and debt dynamics. And the UAE is not the only Gulf power boosting its African presence to drive economic diversification at home and geopolitical clout abroad.

SPECIAL REPORT: SENEGAL’S NEW POLITICAL LEADERSHIP DUO FACES ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK

Tue, 26 March 2024

The incoming political duo that will take power in Senegal has promised a radical state interventionist approach to the economy and the renegotiation of energy contracts with foreign investors. However, their political ambitions will be curbed by a lack of political experience and no workable majority in parliament. Senegal’s incoming president has already watered down some of his most drastic pledges on fiscal and monetary policy, as he faces a fiscal tightrope and strict creditor conditionalities. A key indicator for Senegal’s policy and contract stability in its new political era will be determined by the extent to which the leadership duo remains intact, or if fractures will soon start to show between the two men.

EGYPT: MASSIVE UAE INVESTMENT BOLSTERS FOREX RESERVES AND CATALYSES ENLARGED IMF DEAL

Wed, 06 March 2024

The Egyptian government sealed its largest ever investment deal, valued at USD 35 billion, with an Emirati sovereign fund to develop the Ras El Hekma city. The agreement will bolster the country’s foreign exchange reserves and ensure adequate buffers for Egyptian authorities to devalue the pound and at least move to a more flexible exchange rate regime, thus likely satisfying International Monetary Fund requirements for a new and enlarged financing package. However, the deal in itself is unlikely to ensure a sustainable turnaround for Egypt’s economy and will need to be complemented by long-awaited structural reforms. Meanwhile, Egypt faces a potential humanitarian crisis on its border with Israel, for which it will seek further external support.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - FEBRUARY 2024

Wed, 28 February 2024

Hot on the heels of the latest COP28 in Dubai last year, we have launched a Climate Insight feature on our membership platform assessing the impact of climate change on country risk in Africa and the Middle East. In our first free-to-read briefing, we evaluate the effects of recent natural disasters, noting increased risks of food insecurity, water scarcity, and violence, alongside heightened challenges for businesses from environmental activism and litigation. Climate change-associated risks in Africa and the Middle East are projected to get worse over the coming years and will become an increasingly central part of our country risk forecasting to support our clients’ risk mitigation strategies.

CLIMATE INSIGHT: DISRUPTIVE WEATHER STRAINS WATER AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST

Tue, 20 February 2024

In 2023, natural disasters, intensified by the El Niño phenomenon and unprecedented high temperatures, drastically impacted Africa and the Middle East. In Africa alone, disasters such as floods and droughts affected over 34 million people, causing widespread loss of life and damage. The MENA region faced its own challenges with severe heatwaves and acute water shortages, underscoring its susceptibility to the long-term impacts of climate change while depleting critical resources. The expected peak of El Niño in mid-2024 threatens to exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to increased food insecurity, further water scarcity, and intensified communal violence. At the same time, the increasing frequency of global environmental activism reflects growing public demand for action on climate change, raising targeted protests and litigation risks to high-emitting business sectors.

SAUDI ARABIA: AFRICAN MINING INVESTMENTS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY UNDERPIN ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION

Thu, 15 February 2024

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has markedly intensified its involvement in Africa by committing to investments exceeding USD 25 billion and establishing numerous economic cooperation agreements across essential sectors, including energy, transport, and health. Simultaneously, as the Gaza war intensifies, Saudi Arabia has leaned strongly on Iran to avoid escalating the conflict elsewhere in the Gulf, offering economic incentives for compliance. The Saudi economy is projected to experience a growth rate of approximately 2.6 percent in 2024, with the non-oil sector anticipated as the primary growth driver. Nevertheless, this outlook is subject to high levels of uncertainty, influenced by the volatile oil market, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and the impact of domestic reforms.

MONTHLY INSIGHT - JANUARY 2024

Wed, 31 January 2024

In 2024, Africa’s debt problem may finally be resolved… That will be the ambitious aspiration of many countries that are embracing fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improved governance. Loan markets seem to partially agree with this hypothesis. Just a few weeks after Ethiopia chose to default on a Eurobond coupon payment, Côte d'Ivoire successfully raised USD 2.6 billion in a record-breaking international bonds issuance that drew interest from more than 400 investors. A few other sovereigns are expected to follow suit in coming months, but some debt distressed states will continue to pose severe risk of non-payment through 2024.

ANIMATED REPORT: AFRICA IN 2024 - IDENTIFYING MAJOR COUNTRY RISK TRENDS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND HOTSPOTS

Tue, 16 January 2024

Africa will again drive global economic growth in 2024, while boasting many exciting developments for trade and investment. But the continent also remains exceptionally vulnerable to global challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, forex shortages, and debt unaffordability, as well as conflict and political instability. Pangea-Risk publishes this animated special report, including infographics and bespoke videos, to showcase some of our key forecasts for the African continent in the year ahead.

MARITIME INSIGHT: US-LED AIRSTRIKES WILL NOT CURB HOUTHI THREAT IN RED SEA

Mon, 15 January 2024

The United States and its allies have executed airstrikes in Yemen on over 60 targets across 16 locations, encompassing weapons depots, air-surveillance facilities, and coastal radar systems. This operation signifies a notable tactical shift in the Red Sea region. Despite these measures, the impact of the US-led naval coalition, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, in effectively deterring Houthi aggressions is expected to be limited. In the forthcoming two to three weeks, it is anticipated that Houthi attacks on vessels will persist, albeit potentially at a reduced rate and intensity, as the group reorganises and formulates its forthcoming strategies.

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MEDIA

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PANGEA-RISK: African sovereigns becoming more creditworthy

Friday, 19 April 2024

Robert Besseling, CEO, speaks to CNBC Africa about the latest African sovereign debt developments and the possibility of an African credit rating agency.

View the original here
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African Sovereign Debt: Stepping Back from the Edge

Friday, 19 April 2024

PANGEA-RISK and Acre Impact Capital discuss the outlook for Africa's sovereign debt sustainability with a focus on Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Kenya, Egypt, Angola, and Nigeria.

View the original here
...
Senegal’s president-elect pledges to fight corruption after a stunning victory for the 44-year-old

Tuesday, 26 March 2024

PANGEA-RISK speaks to the AP about president Bassirou Diomaye Faye's stated economic policies.

View the original here

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