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A specialist intelligence advisory

Country risk forecasting solutions to mitigate threats and maximise opportunities
in emerging and frontier markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.




Uncertainty is at an all time high. Instability, insecurity, and conflict are intensifying globally, exacerbated by climate change.
In a complex and multi-polar world, your risk management strategies should go beyond merely avoiding risk.



Be risk aware.
Mitigate country risk with Insight.

We focus on country risk in emerging and frontier markets to create a sustainable competitive advantage for our clients across a broad spectrum of industries.

Our specialist country risk solutions consider interconnected risk perils across the political, economic, and security environment.

We track indicators, map scenarios, and plot the risk trajectory to help you navigate risk and maximise opportunity.




PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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TOWARDS A NEW WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

03 October 2024

AFRICAN DEBT BINGE HITS PAUSE BUTTON

31 July 2024

WESTERN INVESTORS SEEK ANGOLAN OPPORTUNITY

09 July 2024

COMMON FRAMEWORK LESSONS LEARNED

12 June 2024

WHAT NEXT FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR?

06 June 2024

IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN DEBT: STEPPING BACK FROM THE EDGE

16 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S NEW GOVERNMENT FACES REALITY CHECK

10 Apr 2024

AFRICAN FOOD INSECURITY SPIKES

05 Apr 2024

SENEGAL’S HIGH STAKES ELECTION

26 Mar 2024

UAE STEPS UP AFRICAN INVESTMENTS

05 Mar 2024

GHANA COCOA SLUMP

27 Feb 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2024

Mon, 30 September 2024

How do we mitigate conflict in a world with deep ideological divisions, shrinking resources, and disrupted supply chains, exacerbated by climate change…? This question was the recurring theme at the United Nations General Assembly that knotted together myriad attendee discussions in late September. The impact of conflict on country risk in Frontier and Emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East is also a primary focus of our analysis published on the newly expanded Insight country risk solutions platform that we relaunched this month. Popular features among our Insight members that are free to read in this Monthly Insight include an assessment of geopolitical rivalries to access critical minerals, the impact of climate change on country risk in the Sahel, and the regional effect of the escalating war in Lebanon.


CLIMATE INSIGHT: RESOURCE SHORTAGES IN THE SAHEL DRIVE EXPANSION OF INSURGENTS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Wed, 25 September 2024

Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and desertification in the Sahel are intensifying food insecurity and displacing millions, with shrinking water supplies and arable land putting immense pressure on livelihoods. Resource scarcity is fuelling conflicts over land and water, particularly between farming and herding communities, with Lake Chad’s shrinkage amplifying communal violence. Islamist militant groups are exploiting these environmental vulnerabilities, controlling water sources and recruiting from marginalised communities, further destabilising the region and undermining government authority. The expulsion of Western forces has weakened international support, reducing critical funding for climate-related projects.


LEBANON: HEZBOLLAH SUFFERS A MAJOR OPERATIONAL BLOW WHILE STRAINING TO PREVENT A BROADER WAR WITH ISRAEL

Mon, 23 September 2024

Israeli intelligence exploited Hezbollah’s supply chain vulnerabilities by targeting pagers used by its members, exposing the group’s operational weaknesses. The attack deepened Hezbollah’s internal challenges, already strained by recent Israeli strikes on its leadership, as the group struggles to respond without provoking a broader conflict. Politically, Hezbollah faces constraints within Lebanon, where opposition to a full-scale war is growing, and its actions remain tied to Iran’s strategic decisions. Meanwhile, Israel has shifted its military focus northward, preparing for potential escalation, with Israeli leadership indicating a readiness to extend its operations from Gaza to Lebanon.


SPECIAL REPORT: BUOYANT INTEREST IN AFRICAN CRITICAL MINERALS SPURS INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE AND LOGISTICS

Thu, 05 September 2024

Africa’s critical minerals sector is experiencing a strategic shift in global investments, with the United States and Europe promoting projects like the Lobito Corridor to challenge China's dominance and diversify partnerships. Countries across the continent are implementing regulatory reforms to attract global stakeholders and enhance value chains by boosting local processing and production capabilities. Infrastructure deficits, particularly in transport and energy, are driving governments to engage in public-private partnerships and invest heavily in rail and logistics networks to facilitate mineral exports and support economic transformation.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - AUGUST 2024

Thu, 29 August 2024

In August, we mark the ninth anniversary of Pangea-Risk. As we enter a tenth operational year, we are extending coverage of our flagship country risk solution, Insight, to new markets in Central Asia, South Asia, and the Caucasus region. This latest expansion builds on our already established focus on Africa and the Middle East. We mark our anniversary by expanding coverage of the Insight platform to new emerging and frontier markets and applying our market-tested and indicator-driven quantitative risk ratings to all countries around the world.


MARITIME INSIGHT: STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND HORN OF AFRICA EXPOSED TO REGIONAL CONFLICT RISKS

Thu, 15 August 2024

The recent spate of attacks is part of an escalating tit-for-tat cycle of violence between Israel, the US, Iran and regional militant movements. Hostilities have risen sharply after the Israeli military killed senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran just hours after killing a senior Hezbollah official in Beirut in late July. Iran is expected to calibrate its retaliation carefully to avoid full-scale war, but any miscalculation could still escalate into a broader conflict. This would inevitably spill over into other parts of the region, including compounding maritime insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, instability has contributed to a resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa, particularly as groups like the Houthis and Al Shabaab allegedly explore deeper cooperation.


SUDAN: PARAMILITARY RIVALS ADVANCE AMID FAILED PEACE EFFORTS AND RUSSIAN REALIGNMENT

Wed, 14 August 2024

Various mediation efforts proliferate as competing interests among peace brokers undermine a unified approach. Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its support from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), aligning with Iran as the conflict escalates. This strategic pivot occurs alongside the RSF's capture of key territories in Sennar and Darfur, adding complexity to the already stalled peace process. Sudan’s economy is projected to contract further in 2024, with any chance of recovery dependent on the uncertain prospects for peace amid ongoing instability and weak institutional capacities.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JULY 2024

Wed, 31 July 2024

In July, a fifth African country returned to the Eurobond market for the first time in two years. The latest round of bond bingeing may stop there, at least for now, for two reasons. Firstly, uncertainty over the outcome of the US elections is making African treasuries anxious, driving many sovereigns to stock up on gold reserves. Secondly, mounting domestic resistance to strict fiscal conditionalities imposed by the IMF under programmes that have been key to the Eurobonds’ success will make Africa’s policymakers more cautious in adopting austerity to pay back their debt.


IRAN: MODERATE PRESIDENT TO BE CONSTRAINED BY PARLIAMENT AND SUPREME LEADER'S CONTROL

Wed, 10 July 2024

Reformist voters, who largely boycotted the 28 June special presidential election due to doubts about its potential for change, rallied in the 5 July runoff to secure an unexpected victory for reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian's campaign emphasised social reforms, economic improvement, and renewed nuclear negotiations. However, his ability to implement these changes is contingent upon approval from the Supreme Leader and support from a conservative-dominated parliament, presenting substantial challenges. The election could lead to increased engagement with the United States and a further easing tension with Gulf states, though it is unlikely to cause a rift between Iran and its MAIN allies, Russia and China.


SOUTH AFRICA: CABINET TO PRIORITISE REFORM AGENDA AND FISCAL PRUDENCE, DESPITE INTERNAL DISCORD

Thu, 04 July 2024

South Africa’s new cabinet will prioritise reform of state-owned enterprises in the power and logistics sectors. The new cabinet’s impact on reform momentum remains cautiously optimistic but complex due to potential internal disagreements and competing interests posing risks to cohesive governance. Despite these challenges, coalition partners are likely to align on critical areas such as fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improving public service delivery, which are expected to create a more business-friendly environment, encouraging investment and economic expansion.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JUNE 2024

Mon, 01 July 2024

Africa’s youth from Senegal to Kenya to South Africa is feeling politically and economically marginalised under entrenched ruling elites. With more landmark elections scheduled for the second half of this year, and the cost of living stubbornly high, Africa’s leaders have been reminded of the perils of so-called “jobless growth”, where booming economies offer little dividend to their population. A spree of post-pandemic fiscal consolidation is driving socio-economic grievances not only in Africa, but across emerging markets globally, as evidenced by a failed coup attempt in Bolivia and an upset election result in India in June.


MARITIME INSIGHT: RED SEA TRADE DIVERSIONS DRIVE FRESH INVESTMENT IN AFRICAN PORTS

Thu, 20 June 2024

Houthi attacks in the Western Indian Ocean have continued to escalate, disrupting maritime traffic and global trade routes, leading stakeholders to consider alternative routes around the African continent. This shift has increased the demand for services at African ports, producing new opportunities and simultaneously exposing infrastructural deficiencies. Ports in Mauritius, Madagascar, and Mozambique have benefited from their strategic locations, whereas South African ports have struggled with increased traffic due to outdated infrastructure and poor management. Additionally, global investors are increasingly targeting African ports for development, driven by the need to enhance capacity and international connectivity.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Mozambique election likely to extend ruling Frelimo's half-century rule

Tuesday, 08 October 2024

Pangea-Risk analysis on Mozambique's October elections is cited by Reuters news agency and other international media.

View the original here
...
Mozambique's presidential frontrunner likely to keep Rwandans protecting gas sites

Thursday, 03 October 2024

CEO Robert Besseling spoke to Reuters about the elections in Mozambique and security preparations for the LNG restart.

View the original here
...
Mideast Energy Infrastructure in Spotlight Amid Escalation

Wednesday, 02 October 2024

Bilal Bassiouni, Head of Risk Forecasting, assesses the threat to energy infrastructure as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies.

View the original here

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